Sunday, March 22, 2009

Unemployment in India. How much?



Despite my best efforts I have not been able to find the unemployment trend in India.
The last official numbers are for 2005-06.

However, I did find some numbers on CIA factbook
According to it-
Population of India (est for 2008) is 1.16bn
Unemployment (est for 2008) is 6.8% i.e. around 7.9 mn unemployed. I think that this number is grossly understated. The unemployment number has to be in double digits.
Here is why-

More than 70% of the population lives in rural parts of India (in approximately 6,30,000 villages)

I came across an article on Indian express that puts the unemployment rate in Urban India and Rural India at 45% and 17% respectively, per the last NSS in 2005-06

Quick maths tells me that at least (17%*70%*1.16bn) + (45%*30%*1.16bn) should be unemployed. This recession has already taken a heavy toll on employment in urban India. Real unemployment has to be much more than the above no. (i.e. 294.6 mn or 25%of the total population). Whoa! I sincerely hope that there is something wrong with my calculation.

No comments:

Post a Comment