Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Assumption of perfect knowledge



Yes, you will find implicitly or explicitly an assumption of perfect knowledge in any economic theory or model. Obviously, the market change is always dependent on the economic agents...and for that to happen these agents have to be sufficiently informed about the state of the economy.
Now, people depend on economic indicators for that knowledge. I am just wondering whether having more economic indicators (i.e., more informed/misinformed people) can have any impact on the speed with which market forces work.
For example- Developed countries like USA and Japan have several indicators that can help investors/consumers determine the state of the economy and make an informed decision. Here are some indicators for Japan that I came across –
1. Consumer Confidence Index: 26.4 (+0.2)
2. Overall Livelihood: 29.2 (+0.7)
3. Income Growth: 31.4 (-0.1)
4. Employment: 14.2 (-1.2)
5. Willingness to buy durable goods: 30.6 (+1.2)
Source
In a country like India it will be near impossible to get these indicators. This is bound to impact the speed with which market forces work here (India). You can find interest rate numbers, GDP growth, FDI/FII, etc, but you will not be able to get those second level of economic indicators, (as illustrated above) which may have a role to play in changing expectations and hence the speed of the change in the market

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