
Two questions that people want answers to are-
1. Whether this crisis is bound to have an impact on other European partners
2. If the assistance from Euro partners and IMF would solve the crisis
There are several talks about this crisis. Economists (as usual) do not have a consensus on it.
Answer to my first question is a big YES. Greek crisis could badly damage Europe. In a globalized economy, you do expect any single failure to have a cascading effect on other parties in the ecosystem. Yes, the degree of impact may vary. In this case Euro partners of Greece are at risk through their common currency-Euro. A mammoth deficit for Greece is putting downward pressure on Euro. This is a reflection of the low confidence people have in the currency.
Here is a story on that-
Greek shares led the global stock market retreat Tuesday amid mounting concerns about the country's ability to tap a bailout facility. Portuguese shares were also heavily sold off as investors worried that the debt crisis could spread to another euro country.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 81.33 points, or 1.4 percent, at 5,672.52 while Germany's DAX fell 59.78 points, or 0.9 percent, at 6,272.32. The CAC-40 in France fell 78.78 points, or 2 percent, at 3,918.61.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 15.04 points, or 0.1 percent, at 11,189.99 soon after the open while the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 5.51 points, or 0.5 percent, at 1,206.54.
Those falls, though, are dwarfed by the route in Greece and Portugal — the Athens composite main index plunged 6.5 percent to 1,687.80 while Lisbon's main PSI 20 index slid 3.4 percent to 7,298.72. Source: Associated Press
Next few days are going to be important. Watch the markets carefully
On the second question- My answer is NO. The loan assistance would be not be sufficient in the near-mid term or in the long run. I believe that this situation has gone out of hand. Greek govt has to fight battles on two fronts simultaneously:
1. Introduction of austerity measures- Govt already has taken a lot of steps. Tax rate on bonus of pvt bank employees is 90%. No bonus for public sector employees. Wage freezes, etc. Now the point that there is already public dissatisfaction in Greece. There is a limit to which govt can impose taxes and fines. The last thing they want is a cocktail of economic disaster and political backslash
2. Arrangement of loans- Through Euro partners and IMF, Greece hopes to get about US$ 45 billion. But is it enough? I don't think so. Some estimates point to the need for about US$ 300 billion. Even if the Euro partner-IMF loans get sanctioned, the skeletons will come back again after 6 months. Then the fall will be much greater
So now what?
I have no answer right now. Stefan Karlsson suggests a mechanism through which loans can be indefinitely available to Greece. He reckons that this would boost investor's confidence in the economy.
Not sure if he is serious about it because I am still laughing (at his suggestion)
Hello Sudhanshu. Nice to see you back in action.
ReplyDeleteI like your assessment of the Greek crisis. What would you suggest to the Greek prime minister?
Karan Y