Saturday, June 27, 2009

The mystery behind the high savings rate


Here is an interesting article on New York times on high savings rate in China.
Why Do Chinese Save? Boys Want to Marry
The high Chinese savings rate has been one of the wonders of the world. The household savings rate, as a proportion of disposable income, is 30 percent, and has been rising rapidly in recent years. That figure is twice as high as the highest rate ever recorded in the United States....
Source: The New York Times

The article writes about a working paper written by two economists-Shang-Jin Wei of Columbia University and Xiaobo Zhang of the International Food Policy Research Institute. This working paper concludes that the primary reason for the high savings rate is the gender imbalance, where families of males save more parents want their sons to marry, and they figure that girls are more likely to want to marry rich boys.
India too has a savings rate of 28%. I don't see the evidence of above in India.
I understand cultural differences do explain differences in behaviour of individuals to an extent. However, I don't think we can term cultural differences as the primary driver for such an economic behaviour.

Savings rate, according to me, can be primarily explained by the following:
1. Uncertainty-
Income (through a job or through unemployment benefits)
Inflation

2. Less support from government-
No social cover
Health insurance
Pensions

Given that China and India are expected to grow at 8-11% in the next few years, it will be interesting to see whether the savings rate remains that high. I expect it to lower to around 20-25%.

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