Great news for India-
India's economy is estimated to have grown at 6.7% in 2008-09, the year of downturn and global financial meltdown. While this is only a bit higher than the 6.5% most in government were expecting, it is a lot better than the 5-5.5% that independent economists and analysts had projected. Times of India
Clearly, this has come as a pleasant surprise to many economists. This is even much more than what the govt of India had projected.
So now what?
Several industrialists are asking for a rate cut. The govt needs to take steps carefully here. It is difficult to project the inflexion point in a growth curve. However, prudent policy makers need to see the long term implications of the steps aimed at tackling short term deviations.
I would recommend a wait and watch step right now. Clearly, the economy has been responding well to the fiscal and monetary measures. In addition, given the fact that the US economy is expected to do better in the next quarter, Indian policymakers should not try and pump in more liquidity.
There is no case for interest rate cuts-
1. I don't think RBI will be in a position to start increasing interest rates next year if the Indian economy picks up more steam
2. A stable long term policy insures that people/organizaztions have enough time to plan/implement steps. Frequent and unexpected changes in interest policy will only make people more undecisive
The time is right to get more efficient at doing the traditional things instead of trying out new things.
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