Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Greek Bonds are Junk- S&P

Greece’s credit rating was cut three steps to junk by Standard and Poor’s, the first time that’s happened to a euro member since the currency started, as contagion from the nation’s debt crisis spread through the bloc.

Greece was lowered to BB+ from BBB+ by S&P, which also warned that bondholders could recover as little as 30 percent of their initial investment if the country restructures its debt. The Greek move came minutes after the rating company reduced Portugal by two steps to A- from A+. The euro weakened, stocks plunged and the extra yield that investors demand to hold Greek and Portuguese bonds over German bunds surged.

Source: Bloomberg

India becomes seventh largest shareholder in World Bank

Here is the full story on Economic Times
I do expect India's credit rating to improve. But the biggest achievement on the international scene would be to get a permanent position in United Nation's Security Council. I believe India is flexing its muscle to get that this time. It has been long overdue.

More on Eurozone's Greece...



Two questions that people want answers to are-
1. Whether this crisis is bound to have an impact on other European partners
2. If the assistance from Euro partners and IMF would solve the crisis

There are several talks about this crisis. Economists (as usual) do not have a consensus on it.
Answer to my first question is a big YES. Greek crisis could badly damage Europe. In a globalized economy, you do expect any single failure to have a cascading effect on other parties in the ecosystem. Yes, the degree of impact may vary. In this case Euro partners of Greece are at risk through their common currency-Euro. A mammoth deficit for Greece is putting downward pressure on Euro. This is a reflection of the low confidence people have in the currency.
Here is a story on that-

Greek shares led the global stock market retreat Tuesday amid mounting concerns about the country's ability to tap a bailout facility. Portuguese shares were also heavily sold off as investors worried that the debt crisis could spread to another euro country.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 81.33 points, or 1.4 percent, at 5,672.52 while Germany's DAX fell 59.78 points, or 0.9 percent, at 6,272.32. The CAC-40 in France fell 78.78 points, or 2 percent, at 3,918.61.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 15.04 points, or 0.1 percent, at 11,189.99 soon after the open while the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 5.51 points, or 0.5 percent, at 1,206.54.
Those falls, though, are dwarfed by the route in Greece and Portugal — the Athens composite main index plunged 6.5 percent to 1,687.80 while Lisbon's main PSI 20 index slid 3.4 percent to 7,298.72.
Source: Associated Press

Next few days are going to be important. Watch the markets carefully

On the second question- My answer is NO. The loan assistance would be not be sufficient in the near-mid term or in the long run. I believe that this situation has gone out of hand. Greek govt has to fight battles on two fronts simultaneously:
1. Introduction of austerity measures- Govt already has taken a lot of steps. Tax rate on bonus of pvt bank employees is 90%. No bonus for public sector employees. Wage freezes, etc. Now the point that there is already public dissatisfaction in Greece. There is a limit to which govt can impose taxes and fines. The last thing they want is a cocktail of economic disaster and political backslash
2. Arrangement of loans- Through Euro partners and IMF, Greece hopes to get about US$ 45 billion. But is it enough? I don't think so. Some estimates point to the need for about US$ 300 billion. Even if the Euro partner-IMF loans get sanctioned, the skeletons will come back again after 6 months. Then the fall will be much greater

So now what?

I have no answer right now. Stefan Karlsson suggests a mechanism through which loans can be indefinitely available to Greece. He reckons that this would boost investor's confidence in the economy.
Not sure if he is serious about it because I am still laughing (at his suggestion)

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes

A phrase that is apt for the greeks in this situation. Except for the fact that it is not the greeks who are bearing gifts, but its eurozone partners.

When Euro Ship Hits the Greek Shores...

Yes, the Greek crisis is threatening to sink the Euro Ship. The fact is that the debt levels of Greece have hit alarming levels because of which it is posing a threat of Euro currency. And these levels are around 120% of the GDP mark. Yes, that is high...but let's have a look at the same ratio for other developed countries...

* US Gross Debt 2008 12,867.5bn 90.8% of GDP (EST) (US Debt)
* Japan National Debt 192% of GDP 2009 est) 836,521 trillion yen 2007
* Italy National Debt 115% of GDP (FT)
* UK National Debt 68% of GDP (UK)
Source: Economics Help
The above numbers are as of Feb 2010.

How is Greece coping up with it?
It has reached out to its Euro zone partners and IMF to get sufficient loans. While IMF package is nearly ready for dispatch there are some clauses (as some have claimed) in Germany's constitution that disallow it to provide loans to Greece or any partner. This is significant because Gemany's share account for the largest share in the combined Euro zone's package,

I am keenly tracking the economic shifts. Let's see if the bail out package from Euro Zone gets constitutionally passed...
This story has also put some focus on Portugal and other European countries that have high debt levels.

I will track this story...